Occurrences that seemed like anomalies the first time they happened are now more common. These once-unprecedented patterns are now a reality, and they are affecting ecosystems, economies, and communities worldwide.
Building for a Future Climate
Existing infrastructure, which was designed using historical climate data, is increasingly ill-suited to withstand these emerging climate threats. Bridges, roads, water supply systems, and power grids were built on assumptions that are no longer valid1.
Physical infrastructure is often built to last 50 to 100 years. However, if the assumptions underpinning earlier construction no longer apply, the lifespan of those structures is thrown into question. The infrastructure built for the past climate data may struggle to withstand today’s extremes and may require redesign or reinforcement to endure an array of emerging climate challenges.
Much present-day infrastructure was designed with the assumption that the future would look like the past. Infrastructure is often long-lived and may be exposed to widely different climates by the end of its expected life. For government decision-makers and private sector investors, attention will often focus on critical infrastructure, which may be at risk during future extreme weather events. The U.S. Government is beginning to address this but, depending on location, design standards and building codes may not fully account for climate change, particularly for extreme events.
In September, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a pilot of Precipitation Atlas 152 , a key resource used by infrastructure planners that provides the statistical likelihood of an extreme precipitation and assumed a stationary climate, to account for future climate conditions. Similarly, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Bulletin 17-C3, Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency, has been updated to reflect recent climate change data that did not appear in the previous guides (e.g., Bulletins 17-A and 17-B). Drainage systems, coastal defenses and dams built following those guidelines have only been engineered to withstand average rainfalls of an earlier time.
The Challenge of Design in a Changing Climate
The shift in outlook is an essential first step. As our old guidelines become obsolete, how do we prepare new ones? Future design standards must integrate climate projections across a range of scenarios to ensure both resilience and sustainability.
Consider the “100-year return period” concept used to determine the severity of floods. It relies on an assumption of “stationarity” and the idea that past climate patterns are stable. We now observe that past data cannot reliably predict future conditions. When we use historical data to forecast the future, the extreme events we are seeing seem unexpected or extreme since they outside the historical pattern. Proceeding with the old program gives us a false sense of security4.
To overcome these limitations, we need a new approach. Instead of betting on a single, “most probable” future, we need to prepare for a range of possible outcomes. This approach combines probabilistic models with scenario planning and adaptive management strategies. To ensure resilience, we now need to focus more on the range of potential extremes, and their new scale and frequency5.
New Priorities for Engineers and Investors
The pathway to resilience still relies on advanced engineering and strategic investment. However, our priorities need to change and enlarge. Going forward, energy and dollars should go toward:
- Measuring and assessing risks to infrastructure and communities and making design and management decisions based on those risks.
- Updating design standards to account for future climate scenarios and thinking in terms of ranges of potential outcomes.
- Investing in robust, flexible infrastructure that adapts to changing conditions.
- Prioritizing green infrastructure to enhance resilience.
To create systems that can endure today’s challenges and adapt to tomorrow’s uncertainties, climate risk assessments tailored to a changing future must be integrated into every phase of infrastructure planning and development.
Future-focused approaches should incorporate scenario analysis and adaptive design to navigate uncertain climate conditions, updated standards to accommodate extreme weather, green and nature-based solutions that align with natural climate processes, and data-driven improvements to strengthen resilience planning.
Data-Driven Innovations that Support Climate Resilience
At the same time, those risk assessments and new priorities can benefit from better information about how the built environment is used, prior to and during climate events. Data-driven innovations can help better assess climate risks to infrastructure and communities by identifying vulnerable assets and areas, predicting disruptions, and enabling targeted resilience measures to protect critical infrastructure and residents.
Even today, geospatial sensor data and location-based social media data can tell us about urban dynamics and the complex interactions between people and infrastructure.
- Traffic and GPS data from navigation and ride-sharing services can identify mobility hotspots for evacuation and emergency management.
- GTFS and climate data, coupled with traffic information can help assess the risk of climate hazards on transit services and support transportation and community resilience planning.
- Location-based power and water outage reports can identify patterns of climate-induced utility impacts and predict future vulnerabilities.
- Location-based transaction data can improve understanding of climate challenges for local businesses and guide strategies to support adaptation.
Location data from social media can track mobility patterns and how they are affected by climate events, compliance with evacuation orders, and identify communities that need additional support during emergencies.
To support more targeted and equitable decision-making, these data sets should be considered alongside socioeconomic information. With this additional insight, local leaders can identify risks to vulnerable populations and optimize infrastructure development, emergency planning, and community resilience to minimize impacts.
We provide public and private infrastructure owners and operators with forward-looking analytics that allow them to assess the state of their current infrastructure and estimate the impacts from a range of potential natural hazards. This allows them to better plan for emergencies and prioritize their spending.
With a new outlook and new approaches, risk assessment and infrastructure resilience are better informed and more suited to our climate future. Instead of preparing for natural hazards typical of a prior era, we need to prepare for a broader range of climate impacts across our built environment by embracing this comprehensive and dynamic approach.
