Decision-Making for Alternative Futures

• Builds on insights from the WSP scenario development process introduced in 2018
• Supports long-term future-ready infrastructure plans for growing and evolving cities around the world
• Greater focus on public transport and carbon emissions
• Can be adapted to local and regional conditions
• Easy-to-understand visualizations show:
• quantified outputs that demonstrate how endogenous and exogenous factors interact over time to impact the adoption of automated, electric and connected vehicles, and shared mobility services.
• how the adoption of one new mobility technology affects uptake of the others, and how policy levers can impact integration of new mobility into transport networks.

Central to an assessment of the impact of new mobility technologies is the ability to understand how, why and at which rates key market-share levels could be reached. The WSP system dynamics tool incorporates key parameters, such as policy and population changes, consumer behaviour, and marketing and incentives, to address questions such as:

• What decisions are needed today to guide the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), connected and automated vehicles (CAVs), and shared mobility services?
• How can we use policy levers to manage the uptake of EVs and CAVs?
• Is public transport competitive in pandemic times?
• What are the main factors that will bring about a “tipping point” for mass uptake of EVs and CAVs?
• How would an increase in EV and CAV uptake impact the market for shared mobility services?
• How do we create and distribute a robust charging network that supports EV uptake?

A range of public- and private-sector players must work together today to create flourishing cities and places for tomorrow. The WSP Scenario Planning Toolbox will drive this collaborative journey by bringing together diverse thinking toward effective action.

For example:

• Transport network operators can leverage outputs from system dynamics to improve policy enactment and ultimately regulation, which often does not keep pace with rapid technology development.
• Transportation system managers increasingly rely on data analysis experts to provide quantifiable, data-based evidence to design and operate multimodal strategies.
• Government capital infrastructure planning can incorporate results of “what-if” scenario testing made possible through system dynamics analysis to better allocate budgets and understand budget needs in the coming decades.